Clinton vs. Trump 23th Sptember 2016

I have run again the Python code that computes the worst-case (red) and best-Case (blue) posterior distribution for Clinton winning the general USA election. using fresh (September) poll-data.    At the moment there is a quite large uncertainty but is still in favour of Clinton: the  probability of winning is between 0.78 and 0.95.  If you are interested in the methodology I have used to compute these distributions please see the past posts. If you want to try yourself, Python code and data-poll from fivethirtyeight.com are available in my github (just click on the links).
 
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