Bayes+Hilbert=QM

Here I am going to write about our recent result about how to derive Quantum mechanics (QM) from a generalised Bayesian theory on the complex numbers. QM is based on four main axioms, which were derived after a long process of trial and error. The motivations for the axioms are …

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The importance of the region of practical equivalence (ROPE)

The difference between two classifiers (algorithms) can be very small; however there are no two classifiers whose accuracies are perfectly equivalent. By using an null hypothesis significance test (NHST), the null hypothesis is that the classifiers are equal. However, the null hypothesis is practically always false! By rejecting the null …

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Bayesian Signed-Rank Test for comparing algorithms in machine learning

This post is about Bayesian nonparametric tests for comparing algorithms in ML. This time we will discuss about Python module signrank in bayesiantests (see our GitHub repository). It computes the Bayesian equivalent of the Wilcoxon signed-rank test. It return probabilities that, based on the measured performance, one model is better …

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28 October, USA general election situation

These are the updated probability obtained running the Python code that computes the Bayesian posterior distribution over the electoral votes using near-ignorance priors. The worst and best case distribution for Clinton are in red and respectively, blue.. Winning probability above 0.99 (for both worst and best scenario). Electoral votes between …

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