## 2019 |

Benavoli, Alessio ; Facchini, Alessandro ; Zaffalon, Marco Bernstein's socks, polynomial-time provable coherence and entanglement Inproceedings Bock, De J; de Campos, C; de Cooman, G; Quaeghebeur, E; Wheeler, G (Ed.): ISIPTA ;'19: Proceedings of the Eleventh International Symposium on Imprecise Probability: Theories and Applications, JMLR, 2019. Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: @inproceedings{zaffalon2019b, title = {Bernstein's socks, polynomial-time provable coherence and entanglement}, author = {Benavoli, Alessio and Facchini, Alessandro and Zaffalon, Marco}, editor = {J De Bock and C de Campos and G de Cooman and E Quaeghebeur and G Wheeler}, url = {http://alessiobenavoli.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/benavoli19-1.pdf}, year = {2019}, date = {2019-07-07}, booktitle = {ISIPTA ;'19: Proceedings of the Eleventh International Symposium on Imprecise Probability: Theories and Applications}, publisher = {JMLR}, series = {PJMLR}, abstract = {We recently introduced a bounded rationality ap- proach for the theory of desirable gambles. It is based on the unique requirement that being non- negative for a gamble has to be defined so that it can be provable in polynomial time. In this paper we continue to investigate properties of this class of models. In particular we verify that the space of Bernstein polynomials in which non- negativity is specified by the Krivine-Vasilescu certificate is yet another instance of this theory. As a consequence, we show how it is possible to construct in it a thought experiment uncovering entanglement with classical (hence non quantum) coins.}, keywords = {}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {inproceedings} } We recently introduced a bounded rationality ap- proach for the theory of desirable gambles. It is based on the unique requirement that being non- negative for a gamble has to be defined so that it can be provable in polynomial time. In this paper we continue to investigate properties of this class of models. In particular we verify that the space of Bernstein polynomials in which non- negativity is specified by the Krivine-Vasilescu certificate is yet another instance of this theory. As a consequence, we show how it is possible to construct in it a thought experiment uncovering entanglement with classical (hence non quantum) coins. |

Piga, Dario ; Benavoli, Alessio Semialgebraic Outer Approximations for Set-Valued Nonlinear Filtering Inproceedings Proc. on European Control Conference (ECC), 2019. Links | BibTeX | Tags: filtering, set of probabilities, SOS @inproceedings{Piga2019, title = {Semialgebraic Outer Approximations for Set-Valued Nonlinear Filtering}, author = {Piga, Dario and Benavoli, Alessio}, url = {http://alessiobenavoli.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/main_v5.pdf}, year = {2019}, date = {2019-03-24}, booktitle = {Proc. on European Control Conference (ECC)}, keywords = {filtering, set of probabilities, SOS}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {inproceedings} } |

Benavoli, Alessio ; Facchini, Alessandro ; Zaffalon, Marco Computational Complexity and the Nature of Quantum Mechanics Technical Report 2019. Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: Quantum mechanics @techreport{Benavoli2019bb, title = {Computational Complexity and the Nature of Quantum Mechanics}, author = {Benavoli, Alessio and Facchini, Alessandro and Zaffalon, Marco }, url = {https://arxiv.org/abs/1902.04569}, year = {2019}, date = {2019-02-14}, abstract = {Quantum theory (QT) has been confirmed by numerous experiments, yet we still cannot fully grasp the meaning of the theory. As a consequence, the quantum world appears to us paradoxical. Here we shed new light on QT by having it follow from two main postulates (i) the theory should be logically consistent; (ii) inferences in the theory should be computable in polynomial time. The first postulate is what we require to each well-founded mathematical theory. The computation postulate defines the physical component of the theory. We show that the computation postulate is the only true divide between QT, seen as a generalised theory of probability, and classical probability. All quantum paradoxes, and entanglement in particular, arise from the clash of trying to reconcile a computationally intractable, somewhat idealised, theory (classical physics) with a computationally tractable theory (QT) or, in other words, from regarding physics as fundamental rather than computation. }, keywords = {Quantum mechanics}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {techreport} } Quantum theory (QT) has been confirmed by numerous experiments, yet we still cannot fully grasp the meaning of the theory. As a consequence, the quantum world appears to us paradoxical. Here we shed new light on QT by having it follow from two main postulates (i) the theory should be logically consistent; (ii) inferences in the theory should be computable in polynomial time. The first postulate is what we require to each well-founded mathematical theory. The computation postulate defines the physical component of the theory. We show that the computation postulate is the only true divide between QT, seen as a generalised theory of probability, and classical probability. All quantum paradoxes, and entanglement in particular, arise from the clash of trying to reconcile a computationally intractable, somewhat idealised, theory (classical physics) with a computationally tractable theory (QT) or, in other words, from regarding physics as fundamental rather than computation. |

Benavoli, Alessio ; Facchini, Alessandro ; Zaffalon, Marco Computational Complexity and the Nature of Quantum Mechanics (Extended version) Technical Report 2019. Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: Quantum mechanics, Sum-of-squares polynomials @techreport{Benavoli2019c, title = {Computational Complexity and the Nature of Quantum Mechanics (Extended version)}, author = {Benavoli, Alessio and Facchini, Alessandro and Zaffalon, Marco }, url = {https://arxiv.org/abs/1902.03513}, year = {2019}, date = {2019-02-11}, abstract = {Quantum theory (QT) has been confirmed by numerous experiments, yet we still cannot fully grasp the meaning of the theory. As a consequence, the quantum world appears to us paradoxical. Here we shed new light on QT by having it follow from two main postulates (i) the theory should be logically consistent; (ii) inferences in the theory should be computable in polynomial time. The first postulate is what we require to each well-founded mathematical theory. The computation postulate defines the physical component of the theory. We show that the computation postulate is the only true divide between QT, seen as a generalised theory of probability, and classical probability. All quantum paradoxes, and entanglement in particular, arise from the clash of trying to reconcile a computationally intractable, somewhat idealised, theory (classical physics) with a computationally tractable theory (QT) or, in other words, from regarding physics as fundamental rather than computation. }, keywords = {Quantum mechanics, Sum-of-squares polynomials}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {techreport} } Quantum theory (QT) has been confirmed by numerous experiments, yet we still cannot fully grasp the meaning of the theory. As a consequence, the quantum world appears to us paradoxical. Here we shed new light on QT by having it follow from two main postulates (i) the theory should be logically consistent; (ii) inferences in the theory should be computable in polynomial time. The first postulate is what we require to each well-founded mathematical theory. The computation postulate defines the physical component of the theory. We show that the computation postulate is the only true divide between QT, seen as a generalised theory of probability, and classical probability. All quantum paradoxes, and entanglement in particular, arise from the clash of trying to reconcile a computationally intractable, somewhat idealised, theory (classical physics) with a computationally tractable theory (QT) or, in other words, from regarding physics as fundamental rather than computation. |

Benavoli, Alessio; Facchini, Alessandro; Piga, Dario; Zaffalon, Marco Sum-of-squares for bounded rationality Journal Article International Journal of Approximate Reasoning, 105 , pp. 130 - 152, 2019, ISSN: 0888-613X. Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: Sum-of-squares polynomials @article{Benavoli2019b, title = {Sum-of-squares for bounded rationality}, author = {Alessio Benavoli and Alessandro Facchini and Dario Piga and Marco Zaffalon}, url = {https://arxiv.org/abs/1705.02663}, doi = {10.1016/j.ijar.2018.11.012}, issn = {0888-613X}, year = {2019}, date = {2019-01-01}, journal = {International Journal of Approximate Reasoning}, volume = {105}, pages = {130 - 152}, abstract = {In the gambling foundation of probability theory, rationality requires that a subject should always (never) find desirable all nonnegative (negative) gambles, because no matter the result of the experiment the subject never (always) decreases her money. Evaluating the nonnegativity of a gamble in infinite spaces is a difficult task. In fact, even if we restrict the gambles to be polynomials in Rn, the problem of determining nonnegativity is NP-hard. The aim of this paper is to develop a computable theory of desirable gambles. Instead of requiring the subject to desire all nonnegative gambles, we only require her to desire gambles for which she can efficiently determine the nonnegativity (in particular sum-of-squares polynomials). We refer to this new criterion as bounded rationality.}, keywords = {Sum-of-squares polynomials}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } In the gambling foundation of probability theory, rationality requires that a subject should always (never) find desirable all nonnegative (negative) gambles, because no matter the result of the experiment the subject never (always) decreases her money. Evaluating the nonnegativity of a gamble in infinite spaces is a difficult task. In fact, even if we restrict the gambles to be polynomials in Rn, the problem of determining nonnegativity is NP-hard. The aim of this paper is to develop a computable theory of desirable gambles. Instead of requiring the subject to desire all nonnegative gambles, we only require her to desire gambles for which she can efficiently determine the nonnegativity (in particular sum-of-squares polynomials). We refer to this new criterion as bounded rationality. |

Schürch, Manuel; Azzimonti, Dario; Benavoli, Alessio; Zaffalon, Marco Recursive Estimation for Sparse Gaussian Process Regression Technical Report 2019. Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: @techreport{schurch2019recursive, title = {Recursive Estimation for Sparse Gaussian Process Regression}, author = {Manuel Schürch and Dario Azzimonti and Alessio Benavoli and Marco Zaffalon}, url = {https://arxiv.org/abs/1905.11711}, year = {2019}, date = {2019-01-01}, journal = {arXiv preprint arXiv:1905.11711}, abstract = {Gaussian Processes (GPs) are powerful kernelized methods for non-parameteric regression used in many applications. However, their plain usage is limited to a few thousand of training samples due to their cubic time complexity. In order to scale GPs to larger datasets, several sparse approximations based on so-called inducing points have been proposed in the literature. The majority of previous work has focused on the batch setting, whereas in this work we focusing on the training with mini-batches. In particular, we investigate the connection between a general class of sparse inducing point GP regression methods and Bayesian recursive estimation which enables Kalman Filter and Information Filter like updating for online learning. Moreover, exploiting ideas from distributed estimation, we show how our approach can be distributed. For unknown parameters, we propose a novel approach that relies on recursively propagating the analytical gradients of the posterior over mini-batches of the data. Compared to state of the art methods, we have analytic updates for the mean and covariance of the posterior, thus reducing drastically the size of the optimization problem. We show that our method achieves faster convergence and superior performance compared to state of the art sequential Gaussian Process regression on synthetic GP as well as real-world data with up to a million of data samples. }, keywords = {}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {techreport} } Gaussian Processes (GPs) are powerful kernelized methods for non-parameteric regression used in many applications. However, their plain usage is limited to a few thousand of training samples due to their cubic time complexity. In order to scale GPs to larger datasets, several sparse approximations based on so-called inducing points have been proposed in the literature. The majority of previous work has focused on the batch setting, whereas in this work we focusing on the training with mini-batches. In particular, we investigate the connection between a general class of sparse inducing point GP regression methods and Bayesian recursive estimation which enables Kalman Filter and Information Filter like updating for online learning. Moreover, exploiting ideas from distributed estimation, we show how our approach can be distributed. For unknown parameters, we propose a novel approach that relies on recursively propagating the analytical gradients of the posterior over mini-batches of the data. Compared to state of the art methods, we have analytic updates for the mean and covariance of the posterior, thus reducing drastically the size of the optimization problem. We show that our method achieves faster convergence and superior performance compared to state of the art sequential Gaussian Process regression on synthetic GP as well as real-world data with up to a million of data samples. |

## 2018 |

Benavoli, Alessio Dual Probabilistic Programming Proceeding PROBPROG 2018 The International Conference on Probabilistic Programming, Wiesner Building E15 MIT, Cambridge, MA, USA 2018. Links | BibTeX | Tags: dual probabilistic programming, rationality @proceedings{Benavoli2018, title = {Dual Probabilistic Programming}, author = {Benavoli, Alessio }, url = {http://alessiobenavoli.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/dual_PP.pdf}, year = {2018}, date = {2018-10-04}, organization = {PROBPROG 2018 The International Conference on Probabilistic Programming, Wiesner Building E15 MIT, Cambridge, MA, USA}, keywords = {dual probabilistic programming, rationality}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {proceedings} } |

## 2017 |

Benavoli, Alessio ; Corani, Giorgio ; Demsar, Janez ; Zaffalon, Marco Time for a change: a tutorial for comparing multiple classifiers through Bayesian analysis Journal Article Journal of Machine Learning Research, 18 (77), pp. 1-36, 2017. Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: bayesian statistics, machine learning @article{benavoli2016e, title = {Time for a change: a tutorial for comparing multiple classifiers through Bayesian analysis}, author = {Benavoli, Alessio and Corani, Giorgio and Demsar, Janez and Zaffalon, Marco}, url = {http://jmlr.org/papers/v18/16-305.html}, year = {2017}, date = {2017-10-02}, journal = {Journal of Machine Learning Research}, volume = {18}, number = {77}, pages = {1-36}, abstract = {The machine learning community adopted the use of null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) in order to ensure the statistical validity of results. Many scientific fields however realized the shortcomings of frequentist reasoning and in the most radical cases even banned its use in publications. We should do the same: just as we have embraced the Bayesian paradigm in the development of new machine learning methods, so we should also use it in the analysis of our own results. We argue for abandonment of NHST by exposing its fallacies and, more importantly, offer better - more sound and useful - alternatives for it. }, keywords = {bayesian statistics, machine learning}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } The machine learning community adopted the use of null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) in order to ensure the statistical validity of results. Many scientific fields however realized the shortcomings of frequentist reasoning and in the most radical cases even banned its use in publications. We should do the same: just as we have embraced the Bayesian paradigm in the development of new machine learning methods, so we should also use it in the analysis of our own results. We argue for abandonment of NHST by exposing its fallacies and, more importantly, offer better - more sound and useful - alternatives for it. |

Piga, Dario ; Benavoli, Alessio A unified framework for deterministic and probabilistic D-stability analysis of uncertain polynomial matrices Journal Article Automatic Control, IEEE Transactions on, 62 (10), pp. 5437-5444, 2017. Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: Control @article{benavoli2016c, title = {A unified framework for deterministic and probabilistic D-stability analysis of uncertain polynomial matrices}, author = {Piga, Dario and Benavoli, Alessio}, url = {http://arxiv.org/abs/1604.02031}, doi = {10.1109/TAC.2017.2699281}, year = {2017}, date = {2017-10-01}, journal = {Automatic Control, IEEE Transactions on}, volume = {62}, number = {10}, pages = {5437-5444}, abstract = { Many problems in systems and control theory can be formulated in terms of robust D-stability analysis, which aims at verifying if all the eigenvalues of an uncertain matrix lie in a given region D of the complex plane. Robust D-stability analysis is an NP-hard problem and many polynomial-time algorithms providing either sufficient or necessary conditions for an uncertain matrix to be robustly D-stable have been developed in the past decades. Despite the vast literature on the subject, most of the contributions consider specific families of uncertain matrices, mainly with interval or polytopic uncertainty. In this work, we present a novel approach providing sufficient conditions to verify if a family of matrices, whose entries depend polynomially on some uncertain parameters, is robustly D-stable. The only assumption on the stability region D is that its complement is a semialgebraic set described by polynomial constraints, which comprises the main important cases in stability analysis. Furthermore, the D-stability analysis problem is formulated in a probabilistic framework. In this context, the uncertain parameters characterizing the considered family of matrices are described by a set of non a priori specified probability measures. Only the support and some of the moments (e.g., expected values) are assumed to be known and, among all possible probability measures, we seek the one which provides the minimum probability of D-stability. The robust and the probabilistic D-stability analysis problems are formulated in a unified framework, and relaxations based on the theory of moments are used to solve the D-stability analysis problem through convex optimization. Application to robustness and probabilistic analysis of dynamical systems is discussed. }, keywords = {Control}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } Many problems in systems and control theory can be formulated in terms of robust D-stability analysis, which aims at verifying if all the eigenvalues of an uncertain matrix lie in a given region D of the complex plane. Robust D-stability analysis is an NP-hard problem and many polynomial-time algorithms providing either sufficient or necessary conditions for an uncertain matrix to be robustly D-stable have been developed in the past decades. Despite the vast literature on the subject, most of the contributions consider specific families of uncertain matrices, mainly with interval or polytopic uncertainty. In this work, we present a novel approach providing sufficient conditions to verify if a family of matrices, whose entries depend polynomially on some uncertain parameters, is robustly D-stable. The only assumption on the stability region D is that its complement is a semialgebraic set described by polynomial constraints, which comprises the main important cases in stability analysis. Furthermore, the D-stability analysis problem is formulated in a probabilistic framework. In this context, the uncertain parameters characterizing the considered family of matrices are described by a set of non a priori specified probability measures. Only the support and some of the moments (e.g., expected values) are assumed to be known and, among all possible probability measures, we seek the one which provides the minimum probability of D-stability. The robust and the probabilistic D-stability analysis problems are formulated in a unified framework, and relaxations based on the theory of moments are used to solve the D-stability analysis problem through convex optimization. Application to robustness and probabilistic analysis of dynamical systems is discussed. |

Benavoli, Alessio ; Facchini, Alessandro ; Zaffalon, Marco Bayes + Hilbert = Quantum Mechanics Conference Proceedings of the 14th International Conference on Quantum Physics and Logic (QPL 2017), Nijmegen, The Netherlands, 3-7 July, 2017. Links | BibTeX | Tags: Quantum mechanics @conference{Benavoli2017m, title = {Bayes + Hilbert = Quantum Mechanics}, author = {Benavoli, Alessio and Facchini, Alessandro and Zaffalon, Marco }, url = {http://qpl.science.ru.nl/papers/QPL_2017_paper_4.pdf}, year = {2017}, date = {2017-07-05}, booktitle = {Proceedings of the 14th International Conference on Quantum Physics and Logic (QPL 2017), Nijmegen, The Netherlands, 3-7 July}, keywords = {Quantum mechanics}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {conference} } |

Balleri, Alessio ; Farina, Alfonso ; Benavoli, Alessio Coordination of optimal guidance law and adaptive radiated waveform for interception and rendezvous problems Journal Article IET Radar, Sonar & Navigation, 11 (7), pp. 1132 - 1139, 2017, ISSN: 1751-8784. Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: Control @article{benavoli2017a, title = {Coordination of optimal guidance law and adaptive radiated waveform for interception and rendezvous problems}, author = { Balleri, Alessio and Farina, Alfonso and Benavoli, Alessio}, url = {http://digital-library.theiet.org/content/journals/10.1049/iet-rsn.2016.0547}, doi = {10.1049/iet-rsn.2016.0547}, issn = {1751-8784}, year = {2017}, date = {2017-07-01}, journal = {IET Radar, Sonar & Navigation}, volume = {11}, number = {7}, pages = {1132 - 1139}, publisher = {Institution of Engineering and Technology}, abstract = {We present an algorithm that allows an interceptor aircraft equipped with an airborne radar to meet another air target (the intercepted) by developing a guidance law and automatically adapting and optimising the transmitted waveform on a pulse to pulse basis. The algorithm uses a Kalman filter to predict the relative position and speed of the interceptor with respect to the target. The transmitted waveform is automatically selected based on its ambiguity function and accuracy properties along the approaching path. For each pulse, the interceptor predicts its position and velocity with respect to the target, takes a measurement of range and radial velocity and, with the Kalman filter, refines the relative range and range rate estimates. These are fed into a Linear Quadratic Gaussian (LQG) controller that ensures the interceptor reaches the target automatically and successfully with minimum error and with the minimum guidance energy consumption. }, keywords = {Control}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } We present an algorithm that allows an interceptor aircraft equipped with an airborne radar to meet another air target (the intercepted) by developing a guidance law and automatically adapting and optimising the transmitted waveform on a pulse to pulse basis. The algorithm uses a Kalman filter to predict the relative position and speed of the interceptor with respect to the target. The transmitted waveform is automatically selected based on its ambiguity function and accuracy properties along the approaching path. For each pulse, the interceptor predicts its position and velocity with respect to the target, takes a measurement of range and radial velocity and, with the Kalman filter, refines the relative range and range rate estimates. These are fed into a Linear Quadratic Gaussian (LQG) controller that ensures the interceptor reaches the target automatically and successfully with minimum error and with the minimum guidance energy consumption. |

Maradia, Umang; Benavoli, Alessio; Boccadoro, Marco; Klyuev, Mikhail; Gambardella, Luca; Wegener, Konrad; Bonesana, Claudio; Zaffalon, Marco EDM Drilling optimisation using stochastic optimisation Inproceedings Forthcoming CIRP Conference on Intelligent Computation in Manufacturing Engineering, ICME ‘17, pp. 1–8, Ischia, (IT), Forthcoming. BibTeX | Tags: @inproceedings{benavoli2017o, title = {EDM Drilling optimisation using stochastic optimisation}, author = {Umang Maradia and Alessio Benavoli and Marco Boccadoro and Mikhail Klyuev and Luca Gambardella and Konrad Wegener and Claudio Bonesana and Marco Zaffalon}, year = {2017}, date = {2017-07-01}, booktitle = {CIRP Conference on Intelligent Computation in Manufacturing Engineering, ICME ‘17}, pages = {1--8}, address = {Ischia, (IT)}, keywords = {}, pubstate = {forthcoming}, tppubtype = {inproceedings} } |

Baller, Alessio ; Benavoli, Alessio ; Farina, Alfonso Coordination of Guidance and Adaptive Radiated Waveform for Interception and Rendezvous Problems Conference 18th International Radar Symposium (IRS 2017), Prague, Czech Republic, 28-30 June, 2017. BibTeX | Tags: radar tracking @conference{Baller2017, title = {Coordination of Guidance and Adaptive Radiated Waveform for Interception and Rendezvous Problems}, author = {Baller, Alessio and Benavoli, Alessio and Farina, Alfonso}, year = {2017}, date = {2017-06-29}, booktitle = {18th International Radar Symposium (IRS 2017), Prague, Czech Republic, 28-30 June}, keywords = {radar tracking}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {conference} } |

Benavoli, Alessio ; Facchini, Alessandro ; Piga, Dario ; Zaffalon, Marco SOS for bounded rationality Conference Proc. ISIPTA'17 Int. Symposium on Imprecise Probability: Theories and Applications, , PJMLR, 2017. Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: bounded rationality, SOS @conference{Benavoli2017b, title = {SOS for bounded rationality}, author = { Benavoli, Alessio and Facchini, Alessandro and Piga, Dario and Zaffalon, Marco}, url = {https://arxiv.org/abs/1705.02663}, year = {2017}, date = {2017-05-07}, booktitle = {Proc. ISIPTA'17 Int. Symposium on Imprecise Probability: Theories and Applications, }, pages = {1--12}, publisher = {PJMLR}, abstract = {In the gambling foundation of probability theory, rationality requires that a subject should always (never) find desirable all nonnegative (negative) gambles, because no matter the result of the exper- iment the subject never (always) decreases her money. Evaluating the nonnegativity of a gamble in infinite spaces is a difficult task. In fact, even if we restrict the gambles to be polynomials in R n , the problem of determining nonnegativity is NP-hard. The aim of this paper is to develop a computable theory of desirable gambles. Instead of requiring the subject to accept all nonnegative gambles, we only require her to accept gambles for which she can efficiently determine the nonnegativity (in particular SOS polynomials). We call this new criterion bounded rationality.}, keywords = {bounded rationality, SOS}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {conference} } In the gambling foundation of probability theory, rationality requires that a subject should always (never) find desirable all nonnegative (negative) gambles, because no matter the result of the exper- iment the subject never (always) decreases her money. Evaluating the nonnegativity of a gamble in infinite spaces is a difficult task. In fact, even if we restrict the gambles to be polynomials in R n , the problem of determining nonnegativity is NP-hard. The aim of this paper is to develop a computable theory of desirable gambles. Instead of requiring the subject to accept all nonnegative gambles, we only require her to accept gambles for which she can efficiently determine the nonnegativity (in particular SOS polynomials). We call this new criterion bounded rationality. |

Benavoli, Alessio ; Facchini, Alessandro ; Vicente-Perez, Jose ; Zaffalon, Marco A polarity theory for sets of desirable gambles Conference Proc. ISIPTA'17 Int. Symposium on Imprecise Probability: Theories and Applications, , PJMLR, 2017. Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: desirability, lexicographic @conference{Benavoli2017c, title = {A polarity theory for sets of desirable gambles}, author = {Benavoli, Alessio and Facchini, Alessandro and Vicente-Perez, Jose and Zaffalon, Marco}, url = {https://arxiv.org/abs/1705.09574}, year = {2017}, date = {2017-05-07}, booktitle = {Proc. ISIPTA'17 Int. Symposium on Imprecise Probability: Theories and Applications, }, pages = {1-12}, publisher = {PJMLR}, abstract = {Coherent sets of almost desirable gambles and credal sets are known to be equivalent models. That is, there exists a bijection between the two collections of sets preserving the usual operations, e.g. conditioning. Such a correspondence is based on the polarity theory for closed convex cones. Learning from this simple observation, in this paper we introduce a new (lexicographic) polarity theory for general convex cones and then we apply it in order to establish an analogous correspondence between coherent sets of desirable gambles and convex sets of lexicographic probabilities.}, keywords = {desirability, lexicographic}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {conference} } Coherent sets of almost desirable gambles and credal sets are known to be equivalent models. That is, there exists a bijection between the two collections of sets preserving the usual operations, e.g. conditioning. Such a correspondence is based on the polarity theory for closed convex cones. Learning from this simple observation, in this paper we introduce a new (lexicographic) polarity theory for general convex cones and then we apply it in order to establish an analogous correspondence between coherent sets of desirable gambles and convex sets of lexicographic probabilities. |

Benavoli, Alessio ; Colacito, Almudean ; Facchini, Alessandro ; Zaffalon, Marco Accepting and Rejecting Gambles: A Logical Point of View Conference Progic 2017: The 8th Workshop on Combining Probability and Logic, Munich 2017, 2017. Abstract | BibTeX | Tags: desirability @conference{Benavoli2017, title = {Accepting and Rejecting Gambles: A Logical Point of View}, author = { Benavoli, Alessio and Colacito, Almudean and Facchini, Alessandro and Zaffalon, Marco }, year = {2017}, date = {2017-03-30}, booktitle = {Progic 2017: The 8th Workshop on Combining Probability and Logic, Munich 2017}, abstract = {A powerful theory of uncertainty is that of coherent sets of desirable gambles (or desirability). It encompasses, in a uniform way, the Bayesian theory of probability as well as Bayesian robustness and many other theories of uncertainty. In recent years, several attempts have been carried out to explicitly formulate desirability as a logical system; for our purposes, the one by Gillett, Scherl and Shafer is particularly relevant. The goal of this paper is first to provide an appropriate semantics, with the aim to obtain a full completeness result for the logical system of Gillett, Scherl and Shafer. The second goal is to study, from a logical point of view, a generalisation of desirability that allows rejecting gambles to be possible too. Thus we enrich the system by adding a rejection operator, and we formulate some additional deductive rules concerning this operation. The obtained systems are investigated, both from a syntactical and a semantical point of view.}, keywords = {desirability}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {conference} } A powerful theory of uncertainty is that of coherent sets of desirable gambles (or desirability). It encompasses, in a uniform way, the Bayesian theory of probability as well as Bayesian robustness and many other theories of uncertainty. In recent years, several attempts have been carried out to explicitly formulate desirability as a logical system; for our purposes, the one by Gillett, Scherl and Shafer is particularly relevant. The goal of this paper is first to provide an appropriate semantics, with the aim to obtain a full completeness result for the logical system of Gillett, Scherl and Shafer. The second goal is to study, from a logical point of view, a generalisation of desirability that allows rejecting gambles to be possible too. Thus we enrich the system by adding a rejection operator, and we formulate some additional deductive rules concerning this operation. The obtained systems are investigated, both from a syntactical and a semantical point of view. |

Corani, Giorgio ; Benavoli, Alessio ; Demšar, Janez ; Mangili, Francesca ; Zaffalon, Marco Statistical comparison of classifiers through Bayesian hierarchical modelling Journal Article Machine Learning, pp. 1–21, 2017, ISSN: 1573-0565. Links | BibTeX | Tags: bayesian statistics @article{Corani2017, title = {Statistical comparison of classifiers through Bayesian hierarchical modelling}, author = {Corani, Giorgio and Benavoli, Alessio and Demšar, Janez and Mangili, Francesca and Zaffalon, Marco}, url = {http://arxiv.org/abs/1609.08905}, doi = {10.1007/s10994-017-5641-9}, issn = {1573-0565}, year = {2017}, date = {2017-01-01}, journal = {Machine Learning}, pages = {1--21}, keywords = {bayesian statistics}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } |

Benavoli, Alessio ; Facchini, Alessandro ; Zaffalon, Marco A Gleason-Type Theorem for Any Dimension Based on a Gambling Formulation of Quantum Mechanics Journal Article Foundations of Physics, 47 (7), pp. 991–1002, 2017, ISSN: 1572-9516. Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: Quantum mechanics @article{benavoli2016f, title = {A Gleason-Type Theorem for Any Dimension Based on a Gambling Formulation of Quantum Mechanics}, author = {Benavoli, Alessio and Facchini, Alessandro and Zaffalon, Marco}, url = {http://arxiv.org/abs/1606.03615}, doi = {10.1007/s10701-017-0097-0}, issn = {1572-9516}, year = {2017}, date = {2017-01-01}, journal = {Foundations of Physics}, volume = {47}, number = {7}, pages = {991--1002}, abstract = {Based on a gambling formulation of quantum mechanics, we derive a Gleason-type theorem that holds for any dimension n of a quantum system, and in particular for n = 2 . The theorem states that the only logically consistent probability assignments are exactly the ones that are definable as the trace of the product of a projector and a density matrix operator. In addition, we detail the reason why dispersion-free probabilities are actually not valid, or rational, probabilities for quantum mechanics, and hence should be excluded from consideration.}, keywords = {Quantum mechanics}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } Based on a gambling formulation of quantum mechanics, we derive a Gleason-type theorem that holds for any dimension n of a quantum system, and in particular for n = 2 . The theorem states that the only logically consistent probability assignments are exactly the ones that are definable as the trace of the product of a projector and a density matrix operator. In addition, we detail the reason why dispersion-free probabilities are actually not valid, or rational, probabilities for quantum mechanics, and hence should be excluded from consideration. |

Balleri, A; Farina, A; Benavoli, A Balleri A., Griffiths Baker H C (Ed.): pp. 137-154, in 'Biologically-Inspired Radar and Sonar: Lessons from nature.' Institution of Engineering and Technology, 2017. Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: biologically inspired, radar tracking @inbook{benavoli2017n, title = {Biologically-inspired coordination of guidance and adaptive radiated waveform for interception and rendezvous problems}, author = {Balleri, A. and Farina, A. and Benavoli , A.}, editor = {Balleri, A., Griffiths, H., Baker, C.}, url = {http://digital-library.theiet.org/content/books/10.1049/sbra514e_ch7}, doi = {10.1049/SBRA514E_ch7}, year = {2017}, date = {2017-01-01}, pages = {137-154}, publisher = {in 'Biologically-Inspired Radar and Sonar: Lessons from nature.' Institution of Engineering and Technology}, series = {Radar, Sonar and Navigation}, abstract = {In this chapter, we take inspiration from the bat and develop an algorithm that guides an airborne radar interceptor towards a target by jointly developing an optimal guidance and automatically adapting and optimising the transmitted waveform on a pulse-to-pulse basis. The algorithm uses a Kalman filter to predict the relative position and speed of the interceptor with respect to the target.}, keywords = {biologically inspired, radar tracking}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {inbook} } In this chapter, we take inspiration from the bat and develop an algorithm that guides an airborne radar interceptor towards a target by jointly developing an optimal guidance and automatically adapting and optimising the transmitted waveform on a pulse-to-pulse basis. The algorithm uses a Kalman filter to predict the relative position and speed of the interceptor with respect to the target. |

## 2016 |

Benavoli, Alessio ; Facchini, Alessandro ; Zaffalon, Marco Quantum mechanics: The Bayesian theory generalized to the space of Hermitian matrices Journal Article Physics Review A, 94 , pp. 042106, 2016. Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: Quantum mechanics @article{benavoli2016d, title = {Quantum mechanics: The Bayesian theory generalized to the space of Hermitian matrices}, author = {Benavoli, Alessio and Facchini, Alessandro and Zaffalon, Marco}, url = {http://arxiv.org/abs/1605.08177 }, doi = {10.1103/PhysRevA.94.042106}, year = {2016}, date = {2016-10-01}, journal = {Physics Review A}, volume = {94}, pages = {042106}, publisher = {American Physical Society}, abstract = {We consider the problem of gambling on a quantum experiment and enforce rational behavior by a few rules. These rules yield, in the classical case, the Bayesian theory of probability via duality theorems. In our quantum setting, they yield the Bayesian theory generalized to the space of Hermitian matrices. This very theory is quantum mechanics: in fact, we derive all its four postulates from the generalized Bayesian theory. This implies that quantum mechanics is self-consistent. It also leads us to reinterpret the main operations in quantum mechanics as probability rules: Bayes' rule (measurement), marginalization (partial tracing), independence (tensor product). To say it with a slogan, we obtain that quantum mechanics is the Bayesian theory in the complex numbers.}, keywords = {Quantum mechanics}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } We consider the problem of gambling on a quantum experiment and enforce rational behavior by a few rules. These rules yield, in the classical case, the Bayesian theory of probability via duality theorems. In our quantum setting, they yield the Bayesian theory generalized to the space of Hermitian matrices. This very theory is quantum mechanics: in fact, we derive all its four postulates from the generalized Bayesian theory. This implies that quantum mechanics is self-consistent. It also leads us to reinterpret the main operations in quantum mechanics as probability rules: Bayes' rule (measurement), marginalization (partial tracing), independence (tensor product). To say it with a slogan, we obtain that quantum mechanics is the Bayesian theory in the complex numbers. |

Benavoli, Alessio ; Facchini, Alessandro ; Zaffalon, Marco Quantum rational preferences and desirability Inproceedings Proceedings of The 1st International Workshop on “Imperfect Decision Makers: Admitting Real-World Rationality”, NIPS 2016, 2016. Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: Quantum mechanics @inproceedings{benavoli2016h, title = {Quantum rational preferences and desirability}, author = {Benavoli, Alessio and Facchini, Alessandro and Zaffalon, Marco}, url = {http://arxiv.org/abs/1610.06764}, year = {2016}, date = {2016-01-01}, booktitle = {Proceedings of The 1st International Workshop on “Imperfect Decision Makers: Admitting Real-World Rationality”, NIPS 2016}, journal = {ArXiv e-prints 1610.06764}, abstract = {We develop a theory of quantum rational decision making in the tradition of Anscombe and Aumann's axiomatisation of preferences on horse lotteries. It is essentially the Bayesian decision theory generalised to the space of Hermitian matrices. Among other things, this leads us to give a representation theorem showing that quantum complete rational preferences are obtained by means of expected utility considerations. }, keywords = {Quantum mechanics}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {inproceedings} } We develop a theory of quantum rational decision making in the tradition of Anscombe and Aumann's axiomatisation of preferences on horse lotteries. It is essentially the Bayesian decision theory generalised to the space of Hermitian matrices. Among other things, this leads us to give a representation theorem showing that quantum complete rational preferences are obtained by means of expected utility considerations. |

Benavoli, Alessio ; de Campos, Cassio P Bayesian Dependence Tests for Continuous, Binary and Mixed Continuous-Binary Variables Journal Article Entropy, 18 (9), pp. 1-24, 2016. Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: @article{benavoli2016g, title = {Bayesian Dependence Tests for Continuous, Binary and Mixed Continuous-Binary Variables}, author = {Benavoli, Alessio and de Campos, Cassio P.}, url = {http://www.idsia.ch/~alessio/benavoli2016g.pdf}, doi = {10.3390/e18090326}, year = {2016}, date = {2016-01-01}, journal = {Entropy}, volume = {18}, number = {9}, pages = {1-24}, publisher = {Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute}, abstract = {Tests for dependence of continuous, discrete and mixed continuous-discrete variables are ubiquitous in science. The goal of this paper is to derive Bayesian alternatives to frequentist null hypothesis significance tests for dependence. In particular, we will present three Bayesian tests for dependence of binary, continuous and mixed variables. These tests are nonparametric and based on the Dirichlet Process, which allows us to use the same prior model for all of them. Therefore, the tests are “consistent” among each other, in the sense that the probabilities that variables are dependent computed with these tests are commensurable across the different types of variables being tested. By means of simulations with artificial data, we show the effectiveness of the new tests.}, keywords = {}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } Tests for dependence of continuous, discrete and mixed continuous-discrete variables are ubiquitous in science. The goal of this paper is to derive Bayesian alternatives to frequentist null hypothesis significance tests for dependence. In particular, we will present three Bayesian tests for dependence of binary, continuous and mixed variables. These tests are nonparametric and based on the Dirichlet Process, which allows us to use the same prior model for all of them. Therefore, the tests are “consistent” among each other, in the sense that the probabilities that variables are dependent computed with these tests are commensurable across the different types of variables being tested. By means of simulations with artificial data, we show the effectiveness of the new tests. |

Benavoli, Alessio ; Zaffalon, Marco State Space representation of non-stationary Gaussian Processes Unpublished 2016. Links | BibTeX | Tags: Gaussian processes @unpublished{benavoli2016b, title = {State Space representation of non-stationary Gaussian Processes}, author = {Benavoli, Alessio and Zaffalon, Marco}, url = {http://arxiv.org/abs/1601.01544}, year = {2016}, date = {2016-01-01}, volume = {ArXiv e-prints 1601.01544}, keywords = {Gaussian processes}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {unpublished} } |

Benavoli, Alessio ; Piga, Dario A probabilistic interpretation of set-membership filtering: Application to polynomial systems through polytopic bounding Journal Article Automatica, 70 , pp. 158 - 172, 2016. Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: @article{benavoli2016a, title = {A probabilistic interpretation of set-membership filtering: Application to polynomial systems through polytopic bounding}, author = {Benavoli, Alessio and Piga, Dario}, url = {http://www.idsia.ch/~alessio/benavoli2016a.pdf}, doi = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.automatica.2016.03.021}, year = {2016}, date = {2016-01-01}, journal = {Automatica}, volume = {70}, pages = {158 - 172}, abstract = {Set-membership estimation is usually formulated in the context of set-valued calculus and no probabilistic calculations are necessary. In this paper, we show that set-membership estimation can be equivalently formulated in the probabilistic setting by employing sets of probability measures. Inference in set-membership estimation is thus carried out by computing expectations with respect to the updated set of probability measures P as in the probabilistic case. In particular, it is shown that inference can be performed by solving a particular semi-infinite linear programming problem, which is a special case of the truncated moment problem in which only the zero-th order moment is known (i.e., the support). By writing the dual of the above semi-infinite linear programming problem, it is shown that, if the nonlinearities in the measurement and process equations are polynomial and if the bounding sets for initial state, process and measurement noises are described by polynomial inequalities, then an approximation of this semi-infinite linear programming problem can efficiently be obtained by using the theory of sum-of-squares polynomial optimization. We then derive a smart greedy procedure to compute a polytopic outer-approximation of the true membership-set, by computing the minimum-volume polytope that outer-bounds the set that includes all the means computed with respect to P. }, keywords = {}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } Set-membership estimation is usually formulated in the context of set-valued calculus and no probabilistic calculations are necessary. In this paper, we show that set-membership estimation can be equivalently formulated in the probabilistic setting by employing sets of probability measures. Inference in set-membership estimation is thus carried out by computing expectations with respect to the updated set of probability measures P as in the probabilistic case. In particular, it is shown that inference can be performed by solving a particular semi-infinite linear programming problem, which is a special case of the truncated moment problem in which only the zero-th order moment is known (i.e., the support). By writing the dual of the above semi-infinite linear programming problem, it is shown that, if the nonlinearities in the measurement and process equations are polynomial and if the bounding sets for initial state, process and measurement noises are described by polynomial inequalities, then an approximation of this semi-infinite linear programming problem can efficiently be obtained by using the theory of sum-of-squares polynomial optimization. We then derive a smart greedy procedure to compute a polytopic outer-approximation of the true membership-set, by computing the minimum-volume polytope that outer-bounds the set that includes all the means computed with respect to P. |

Benavoli, Alessio ; Corani, Giorgio ; Mangili, Francesca Should We Really Use Post-Hoc Tests Based on Mean-Ranks? Journal Article Journal of Machine Learning Research, 17 (5), pp. 152-161, 2016. @article{benavoli2015c, title = {Should We Really Use Post-Hoc Tests Based on Mean-Ranks?}, author = {Benavoli, Alessio and Corani, Giorgio and Mangili, Francesca}, url = {http://www.idsia.ch/~alessio/benavoli2015c.pdf}, year = {2016}, date = {2016-01-01}, journal = {Journal of Machine Learning Research}, volume = {17}, number = {5}, pages = {152-161}, keywords = {}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } |

de Campos, Cassio P; Benavoli, Alessio Joint Analysis of Multiple Algorithms and Performance Measures Journal Article New Generation Computing, 35 (1), pp. 69–86, 2016, ISSN: 1882-7055. Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: @article{deCampos2016, title = {Joint Analysis of Multiple Algorithms and Performance Measures}, author = {de Campos, Cassio P. and Benavoli, Alessio}, url = {http://people.idsia.ch/~alessio/decampos-benavoli-ngc2016.pdf}, doi = {10.1007/s00354-016-0005-8}, issn = {1882-7055}, year = {2016}, date = {2016-01-01}, journal = {New Generation Computing}, volume = {35}, number = {1}, pages = {69--86}, abstract = {There has been an increasing interest in the development of new methods using Pareto optimality to deal with multi-objective criteria (for example, accuracy and time complexity). Once one has developed an approach to a problem of interest, the problem is then how to compare it with the state of art. In machine learning, algorithms are typically evaluated by comparing their performance on different data sets by means of statistical tests. Standard tests used for this purpose are able to consider jointly neither performance measures nor multiple competitors at once. The aim of this paper is to resolve these issues by developing statistical procedures that are able to account for multiple competing measures at the same time and to compare multiple algorithms altogether. In particular, we develop two tests: a frequentist procedure based on the generalized likelihood ratio test and a Bayesian procedure based on a multinomial-Dirichlet conjugate model. We further extend them by discovering conditional independences among measures to reduce the number of parameters of such models, as usually the number of studied cases is very reduced in such comparisons. Data from a comparison among general purpose classifiers are used to show a practical application of our tests.}, keywords = {}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } There has been an increasing interest in the development of new methods using Pareto optimality to deal with multi-objective criteria (for example, accuracy and time complexity). Once one has developed an approach to a problem of interest, the problem is then how to compare it with the state of art. In machine learning, algorithms are typically evaluated by comparing their performance on different data sets by means of statistical tests. Standard tests used for this purpose are able to consider jointly neither performance measures nor multiple competitors at once. The aim of this paper is to resolve these issues by developing statistical procedures that are able to account for multiple competing measures at the same time and to compare multiple algorithms altogether. In particular, we develop two tests: a frequentist procedure based on the generalized likelihood ratio test and a Bayesian procedure based on a multinomial-Dirichlet conjugate model. We further extend them by discovering conditional independences among measures to reduce the number of parameters of such models, as usually the number of studied cases is very reduced in such comparisons. Data from a comparison among general purpose classifiers are used to show a practical application of our tests. |

## 2015 |

Corani, Giorgio ; Benavoli, Alessio A Bayesian approach for comparing cross-validated algorithms on multiple data sets Inproceedings Accepted to the European Conference on Machine Learning and Principles and Practice of Knowledge Discovery in Databases (ECML-PKDD 2015), pp. 1–20, 2015. @inproceedings{corani2015b, title = {A Bayesian approach for comparing cross-validated algorithms on multiple data sets}, author = {Corani, Giorgio and Benavoli, Alessio}, url = {http://www.idsia.ch/~alessio/corani2015a.pdf}, year = {2015}, date = {2015-01-01}, booktitle = {Accepted to the European Conference on Machine Learning and Principles and Practice of Knowledge Discovery in Databases (ECML-PKDD 2015)}, pages = {1--20}, keywords = {}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {inproceedings} } |

Benavoli, Alessio ; Corani, Giorgio ; Mangili, Francesca ; Zaffalon, Marco A Bayesian nonparametric procedure for comparing algorithms Inproceedings Proceedings of the 31th International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML 2015), pp. 1–9, 2015. @inproceedings{benavoli2015b, title = {A Bayesian nonparametric procedure for comparing algorithms}, author = {Benavoli, Alessio and Corani, Giorgio and Mangili, Francesca and Zaffalon, Marco}, url = {http://www.idsia.ch/~alessio/benavoli2015b.pdf}, year = {2015}, date = {2015-01-01}, booktitle = {Proceedings of the 31th International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML 2015)}, pages = {1--9}, keywords = {}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {inproceedings} } |

Benavoli, Alessio ; Mangili, Francesca Gaussian Processes for Bayesian hypothesis tests on regression functions Inproceedings Proceedings of the 18th International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Statistics (AISTAT 2015), pp. 1–9, 2015. @inproceedings{benavoli2015a, title = {Gaussian Processes for Bayesian hypothesis tests on regression functions}, author = {Benavoli, Alessio and Mangili, Francesca}, url = {http://www.idsia.ch/~alessio/benavoli2015a.pdf}, year = {2015}, date = {2015-01-01}, booktitle = {Proceedings of the 18th International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Statistics (AISTAT 2015)}, pages = {1--9}, keywords = {}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {inproceedings} } |

Mangili, Francesca ; Benavoli, Alessio ; de Campos, Cassio P; Zaffalon, Marco Reliable survival analysis based on the Đirichlet Process Journal Article Biometrical Journal, 57 , pp. 1002–1019, 2015. @article{mangili2015a, title = {Reliable survival analysis based on the Đirichlet Process}, author = {Mangili, Francesca and Benavoli, Alessio and de Campos, Cassio P. and Zaffalon, Marco}, url = {http://www.idsia.ch/~alessio/mangili2015a.pdf}, doi = {10.1002/bimj.201500062}, year = {2015}, date = {2015-01-01}, journal = {Biometrical Journal}, volume = {57}, pages = {1002–1019}, keywords = {}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } |

Corani, Giorgio ; Benavoli, Alessio A Bayesian approach for comparing cross-validated algorithms on multiple data sets Journal Article Machine Learning, 100 (2), pp. 285–304, 2015. @article{corani2015a, title = {A Bayesian approach for comparing cross-validated algorithms on multiple data sets}, author = {Corani, Giorgio and Benavoli, Alessio}, url = {http://www.idsia.ch/~alessio/corani2015a.pdf}, doi = {10.1007/s10994-015-5486-z}, year = {2015}, date = {2015-01-01}, journal = {Machine Learning}, volume = {100}, number = {2}, pages = {285--304}, publisher = {Springer US}, keywords = {}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } |

Benavoli, Alessio ; Mangili, Francesca ; Ruggeri, Fabrizio ; Zaffalon, Marco Imprecise Dirichlet Process With Application to the Hypothesis Test on the Probability That X ≤ Y Journal Article Journal of Statistical Theory and Practice, 9 (3), pp. 658-684, 2015. @article{benavoli2014c, title = {Imprecise Dirichlet Process With Application to the Hypothesis Test on the Probability That X ≤ Y}, author = {Benavoli, Alessio and Mangili, Francesca and Ruggeri, Fabrizio and Zaffalon, Marco}, url = {http://www.idsia.ch/~alessio/benavoli2014c.pdf}, doi = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/15598608.2014.985997}, year = {2015}, date = {2015-01-01}, journal = {Journal of Statistical Theory and Practice}, volume = {9}, number = {3}, pages = {658-684}, keywords = {}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } |

Mangili, Francesca ; Benavoli, Alessio New prior near-ignorance models on the simplex Journal Article International Journal of Approximate Reasoning, 56, Part B (0), pp. 278 - 306, 2015. @article{Mangili2014, title = {New prior near-ignorance models on the simplex}, author = {Mangili, Francesca and Benavoli, Alessio}, url = {http://www.idsia.ch/~alessio/mangili2014.pdf}, doi = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijar.2014.08.005}, year = {2015}, date = {2015-01-01}, journal = {International Journal of Approximate Reasoning}, volume = {56, Part B}, number = {0}, pages = {278 - 306}, keywords = {}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } |

Benavoli, Alessio ; de Campos, Cassio P Statistical Tests for Joint Analysis of Performance Measures Inproceedings Suzuki, Joe ; Ueno, Maomi (Ed.): Advanced Methodologies for Bayesian Networks: Second International Workshop, AMBN 2015, Yokohama, Japan, November 16-18, 2015. Proceedings, pp. 76–92, Springer International Publishing, Cham, 2015, ISBN: 978-3-319-28379-1. @inproceedings{Benavoli2015i, title = {Statistical Tests for Joint Analysis of Performance Measures}, author = {Benavoli, Alessio and de Campos, Cassio P.}, editor = {Suzuki, Joe and Ueno, Maomi}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-28379-1_6}, doi = {10.1007/978-3-319-28379-1_6}, isbn = {978-3-319-28379-1}, year = {2015}, date = {2015-01-01}, booktitle = {Advanced Methodologies for Bayesian Networks: Second International Workshop, AMBN 2015, Yokohama, Japan, November 16-18, 2015. Proceedings}, pages = {76--92}, publisher = {Springer International Publishing}, address = {Cham}, keywords = {}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {inproceedings} } |

## 2014 |

Benavoli, Alessio ; Mangili, Francesca ; Corani, Giorgio ; Zaffalon, Marco ; Ruggeri, Fabrizio A Bayesian Wilcoxon signed-rank test based on the Đirichlet process Inproceedings Proceedings of the 30th International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML 2014), pp. 1–9, 2014. @inproceedings{benavoli2014a, title = {A Bayesian Wilcoxon signed-rank test based on the Đirichlet process}, author = {Benavoli, Alessio and Mangili, Francesca and Corani, Giorgio and Zaffalon, Marco and Ruggeri, Fabrizio}, url = {http://www.idsia.ch/~alessio/benavoli2014a.pdf}, year = {2014}, date = {2014-01-01}, booktitle = {Proceedings of the 30th International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML 2014)}, pages = {1--9}, keywords = {}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {inproceedings} } |

Benavoli, Alessio ; Zaffalon, Marco Prior near ignorance for inferences in the k-parameter exponential family Journal Article Statistics, 49 , pp. 1104-1140, 2014. @article{benavoli2014b, title = {Prior near ignorance for inferences in the k-parameter exponential family}, author = {Benavoli, Alessio and Zaffalon, Marco}, url = {http://www.idsia.ch/~alessio/benavoli2014b.pdf}, doi = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02331888.2014.960869}, year = {2014}, date = {2014-01-01}, journal = {Statistics}, volume = {49}, pages = {1104-1140}, keywords = {}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } |

Mauá, Denis Deratani ; de Campos, Cassio P; Benavoli, Alessio ; Antonucci, Alessandro Probabilistic Inference in Credal Networks: New Complexity Results Journal Article Journal of Artifical Intelligence Research, 50 , pp. 603–637, 2014. @article{maua14jair, title = {Probabilistic Inference in Credal Networks: New Complexity Results}, author = {Mauá, Denis Deratani and de Campos, Cassio P. and Benavoli, Alessio and Antonucci, Alessandro}, url = {http://www.idsia.ch/~alessio/maua14jair.pdf}, doi = {10.1613/jair.4355}, year = {2014}, date = {2014-01-01}, journal = {Journal of Artifical Intelligence Research}, volume = {50}, pages = {603--637}, keywords = {}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } |

Benavoli, Alessio Belief function and multivalued mapping robustness in statistical estimation Journal Article International Journal of Approximate Reasoning, 55 (1, Part 3), pp. 311 - 329, 2014. @article{benavoli2013a, title = {Belief function and multivalued mapping robustness in statistical estimation}, author = {Benavoli, Alessio}, url = {http://www.idsia.ch/~alessio/benavoli2013a.pdf}, doi = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijar.2013.04.014}, year = {2014}, date = {2014-01-01}, journal = {International Journal of Approximate Reasoning}, volume = {55}, number = {1, Part 3}, pages = {311 - 329}, keywords = {}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } |

## 2013 |

Mangili, Francesca ; Benavoli, Alessio New Prior Near-ignorance Models on the Simplex Inproceedings Proc. ISIPTA'13 - 8th Int. Symposium on imprecise Probability: Theories and Applications, pp. 1–9, Compiegne (FR), 2013. @inproceedings{mangili2013a, title = {New Prior Near-ignorance Models on the Simplex}, author = {Mangili, Francesca and Benavoli, Alessio}, url = {http://www.idsia.ch/~alessio/mangili2013a.pdf}, year = {2013}, date = {2013-07-01}, booktitle = {Proc. ISIPTA'13 - 8th Int. Symposium on imprecise Probability: Theories and Applications}, pages = {1--9}, address = {Compiegne (FR)}, keywords = {}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {inproceedings} } |

Benavoli, Alessio Imprecise Hierarchical Dirichlet model with applications Inproceedings Information Fusion (FUSION), 2013 Proc. of the 16th International Conference on, pp. 1–8, 2013. @inproceedings{benavoli2013d, title = {Imprecise Hierarchical Dirichlet model with applications}, author = {Benavoli, Alessio}, url = {http://www.idsia.ch/~alessio/benavoli2013d.pdf}, year = {2013}, date = {2013-07-01}, booktitle = {Information Fusion (FUSION), 2013 Proc. of the 16th International Conference on}, pages = {1--8}, keywords = {}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {inproceedings} } |

Benavoli, Alessio ; Papi, Francesco Set-membership PHD filter Inproceedings Information Fusion (FUSION), 2013 Proc. of the 16th International Conference on, pp. 1722 –1729, 2013. @inproceedings{benavoli2013c, title = {Set-membership PHD filter}, author = {Benavoli, Alessio and Papi, Francesco}, url = {http://www.idsia.ch/~alessio/benavoli2013c.pdf}, year = {2013}, date = {2013-07-01}, booktitle = {Information Fusion (FUSION), 2013 Proc. of the 16th International Conference on}, pages = {1722 --1729}, keywords = {}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {inproceedings} } |

Mauá, Denis Deratani ; de Campos, Cassio P; Benavoli, Alessio ; Antonucci, Alessandro On the Complexity of Strong and Epistemic Credal Networks Inproceedings Proceedings of the 29th Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI 2013), pp. 391-400, 2013. @inproceedings{maua2013a, title = {On the Complexity of Strong and Epistemic Credal Networks}, author = {Mauá, Denis Deratani and de Campos, Cassio P. and Benavoli, Alessio and Antonucci, Alessandro}, url = {http://www.idsia.ch/~alessio/maua2013a.pdf}, year = {2013}, date = {2013-01-01}, booktitle = {Proceedings of the 29th Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI 2013)}, pages = {391-400}, keywords = {}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {inproceedings} } |

Benavoli, Alessio The Generalized Moment-Based Filter Journal Article Automatic Control, IEEE Transactions on, 58 (10), pp. 2642-2647, 2013, ISSN: 0018-9286. @article{benavoli2013b, title = {The Generalized Moment-Based Filter}, author = {Benavoli, Alessio}, url = {http://www.idsia.ch/~alessio/benavoli2013b.pdf}, doi = {10.1109/TAC.2013.2255971}, issn = {0018-9286}, year = {2013}, date = {2013-01-01}, journal = {Automatic Control, IEEE Transactions on}, volume = {58}, number = {10}, pages = {2642-2647}, keywords = {}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } |

Benavoli, Alessio ; Zaffalon, Marco Density-ratio robustness in dynamic state estimation Journal Article Mechanical Systems and Signal Processing, 37 (1–2), pp. 54 - 75, 2013. @article{benavoli2012g, title = {Density-ratio robustness in dynamic state estimation}, author = {Benavoli, Alessio and Zaffalon, Marco}, url = {http://www.idsia.ch/~alessio/benavoli2012g.pdf}, doi = {10.1016/j.ymssp.2012.09.004}, year = {2013}, date = {2013-01-01}, journal = {Mechanical Systems and Signal Processing}, volume = {37}, number = {1–2}, pages = {54 - 75}, keywords = {}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } |

## 2012 |

Battistelli, Giorgio ; Benavoli, Alessio ; Chisci, Luigi Data-Driven Strategies for selective data transmission in sensor networks Inproceedings Accepted to CDC, 2012. BibTeX | Tags: @inproceedings{benavoli2012f, title = {Data-Driven Strategies for selective data transmission in sensor networks}, author = {Battistelli, Giorgio and Benavoli, Alessio and Chisci, Luigi}, year = {2012}, date = {2012-01-01}, booktitle = {Accepted to CDC}, keywords = {}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {inproceedings} } |

Benavoli, Alessio ; Noack, Benjamin Pushing Kalman's Idea to the Extremes Inproceedings Accepted to Information Fusion (FUSION), 2012, 2012. @inproceedings{benavoli2012e, title = {Pushing Kalman's Idea to the Extremes}, author = {Benavoli, Alessio and Noack, Benjamin}, url = {http://www.idsia.ch/~alessio/fusion2012.pdf}, year = {2012}, date = {2012-01-01}, booktitle = {Accepted to Information Fusion (FUSION), 2012}, keywords = {}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {inproceedings} } |

Benavoli, Alessio Belief Function Robustness in Estimation Incollection Denoeux, Thierry ; Masson, Marie-Hélène (Ed.): Belief Functions: Theory and Applications, 164 , pp. 375-383, Springer Berlin / Heidelberg, 2012. Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: @incollection{benavoli2012a, title = {Belief Function Robustness in Estimation}, author = {Benavoli, Alessio}, editor = {Denoeux, Thierry and Masson, Marie-Hélène}, url = {http://www.idsia.ch/~alessio/belief2012.pdf}, doi = {10.1007/978-3-642-29461-7_44}, year = {2012}, date = {2012-01-01}, booktitle = {Belief Functions: Theory and Applications}, volume = {164}, pages = {375-383}, publisher = {Springer Berlin / Heidelberg}, series = {Advances in Intelligent and Soft Computing}, abstract = {We consider the case in which the available knowledge does not allow to specify a precise probabilistic model for the prior and/or likelihood in statistical estimation. We assume that this imprecision can be represented by belief functions. Thus, we exploit the mathematical structure of belief functions and their equivalent representation in terms of closed convex sets of probability measures to derive robust posterior inferences.}, keywords = {}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {incollection} } We consider the case in which the available knowledge does not allow to specify a precise probabilistic model for the prior and/or likelihood in statistical estimation. We assume that this imprecision can be represented by belief functions. Thus, we exploit the mathematical structure of belief functions and their equivalent representation in terms of closed convex sets of probability measures to derive robust posterior inferences. |

Benavoli, Alessio ; Zaffalon, Marco A model of prior ignorance for inferences in the one-parameter exponential family Journal Article Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference, 142 (7), pp. 1960 - 1979, 2012, ISSN: 0378-3758. @article{benavoli2012b, title = {A model of prior ignorance for inferences in the one-parameter exponential family}, author = {Benavoli, Alessio and Zaffalon, Marco}, url = {http://www.idsia.ch/~alessio/Exp_fam_JSPI.pdf}, doi = {10.1016/j.jspi.2012.01.023}, issn = {0378-3758}, year = {2012}, date = {2012-01-01}, journal = {Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference}, volume = {142}, number = {7}, pages = {1960 - 1979}, keywords = {}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } |

Battistelli, Giorgio ; Benavoli, Alessio ; Chisci, Luigi Data-driven communication for state estimation with sensor networks Journal Article Automatica, 48 (5), pp. 926 - 935, 2012. @article{benavoli2012c, title = {Data-driven communication for state estimation with sensor networks}, author = {Battistelli, Giorgio and Benavoli, Alessio and Chisci, Luigi}, url = {http://www.idsia.ch/~alessio/data_driven_paper.pdf}, doi = {10.1016/j.automatica.2012.02.028}, year = {2012}, date = {2012-01-01}, journal = {Automatica}, volume = {48}, number = {5}, pages = {926 - 935}, keywords = {}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } |

Battistelli, Giorgio ; Benavoli, Alessio ; Chisci, Luigi State estimation with remote sensors and intermittent transmissions Journal Article Systems & Control Letters, 61 (1), pp. 155 - 164, 2012, ISSN: 0167-6911. @article{benavoli_2012_journal_a, title = {State estimation with remote sensors and intermittent transmissions}, author = {Battistelli, Giorgio and Benavoli, Alessio and Chisci, Luigi}, url = {http://www.idsia.ch/~alessio/SN.pdf}, doi = {10.1016/j.sysconle.2011.10.005}, issn = {0167-6911}, year = {2012}, date = {2012-01-01}, journal = {Systems & Control Letters}, volume = {61}, number = {1}, pages = {155 - 164}, keywords = {}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } |

# Publications

## 2019 |

Bernstein's socks, polynomial-time provable coherence and entanglement Inproceedings Bock, De J; de Campos, C; de Cooman, G; Quaeghebeur, E; Wheeler, G (Ed.): ISIPTA ;'19: Proceedings of the Eleventh International Symposium on Imprecise Probability: Theories and Applications, JMLR, 2019. |

Semialgebraic Outer Approximations for Set-Valued Nonlinear Filtering Inproceedings Proc. on European Control Conference (ECC), 2019. |

Computational Complexity and the Nature of Quantum Mechanics Technical Report 2019. |

Computational Complexity and the Nature of Quantum Mechanics (Extended version) Technical Report 2019. |

Sum-of-squares for bounded rationality Journal Article International Journal of Approximate Reasoning, 105 , pp. 130 - 152, 2019, ISSN: 0888-613X. |

Recursive Estimation for Sparse Gaussian Process Regression Technical Report 2019. |

## 2018 |

Dual Probabilistic Programming Proceeding PROBPROG 2018 The International Conference on Probabilistic Programming, Wiesner Building E15 MIT, Cambridge, MA, USA 2018. |

## 2017 |

Time for a change: a tutorial for comparing multiple classifiers through Bayesian analysis Journal Article Journal of Machine Learning Research, 18 (77), pp. 1-36, 2017. |

A unified framework for deterministic and probabilistic D-stability analysis of uncertain polynomial matrices Journal Article Automatic Control, IEEE Transactions on, 62 (10), pp. 5437-5444, 2017. |

Bayes + Hilbert = Quantum Mechanics Conference Proceedings of the 14th International Conference on Quantum Physics and Logic (QPL 2017), Nijmegen, The Netherlands, 3-7 July, 2017. |

Coordination of optimal guidance law and adaptive radiated waveform for interception and rendezvous problems Journal Article IET Radar, Sonar & Navigation, 11 (7), pp. 1132 - 1139, 2017, ISSN: 1751-8784. |

EDM Drilling optimisation using stochastic optimisation Inproceedings Forthcoming CIRP Conference on Intelligent Computation in Manufacturing Engineering, ICME ‘17, pp. 1–8, Ischia, (IT), Forthcoming. |

Coordination of Guidance and Adaptive Radiated Waveform for Interception and Rendezvous Problems Conference 18th International Radar Symposium (IRS 2017), Prague, Czech Republic, 28-30 June, 2017. |

SOS for bounded rationality Conference Proc. ISIPTA'17 Int. Symposium on Imprecise Probability: Theories and Applications, , PJMLR, 2017. |

A polarity theory for sets of desirable gambles Conference Proc. ISIPTA'17 Int. Symposium on Imprecise Probability: Theories and Applications, , PJMLR, 2017. |

Accepting and Rejecting Gambles: A Logical Point of View Conference Progic 2017: The 8th Workshop on Combining Probability and Logic, Munich 2017, 2017. |

Statistical comparison of classifiers through Bayesian hierarchical modelling Journal Article Machine Learning, pp. 1–21, 2017, ISSN: 1573-0565. |

A Gleason-Type Theorem for Any Dimension Based on a Gambling Formulation of Quantum Mechanics Journal Article Foundations of Physics, 47 (7), pp. 991–1002, 2017, ISSN: 1572-9516. |

Balleri A., Griffiths Baker H C (Ed.): pp. 137-154, in 'Biologically-Inspired Radar and Sonar: Lessons from nature.' Institution of Engineering and Technology, 2017. |

## 2016 |

Quantum mechanics: The Bayesian theory generalized to the space of Hermitian matrices Journal Article Physics Review A, 94 , pp. 042106, 2016. |

Quantum rational preferences and desirability Inproceedings Proceedings of The 1st International Workshop on “Imperfect Decision Makers: Admitting Real-World Rationality”, NIPS 2016, 2016. |

Bayesian Dependence Tests for Continuous, Binary and Mixed Continuous-Binary Variables Journal Article Entropy, 18 (9), pp. 1-24, 2016. |

State Space representation of non-stationary Gaussian Processes Unpublished 2016. |

A probabilistic interpretation of set-membership filtering: Application to polynomial systems through polytopic bounding Journal Article Automatica, 70 , pp. 158 - 172, 2016. |

Should We Really Use Post-Hoc Tests Based on Mean-Ranks? Journal Article Journal of Machine Learning Research, 17 (5), pp. 152-161, 2016. |

Joint Analysis of Multiple Algorithms and Performance Measures Journal Article New Generation Computing, 35 (1), pp. 69–86, 2016, ISSN: 1882-7055. |

## 2015 |

A Bayesian approach for comparing cross-validated algorithms on multiple data sets Inproceedings Accepted to the European Conference on Machine Learning and Principles and Practice of Knowledge Discovery in Databases (ECML-PKDD 2015), pp. 1–20, 2015. |

A Bayesian nonparametric procedure for comparing algorithms Inproceedings Proceedings of the 31th International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML 2015), pp. 1–9, 2015. |

Gaussian Processes for Bayesian hypothesis tests on regression functions Inproceedings Proceedings of the 18th International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Statistics (AISTAT 2015), pp. 1–9, 2015. |

Reliable survival analysis based on the Đirichlet Process Journal Article Biometrical Journal, 57 , pp. 1002–1019, 2015. |

A Bayesian approach for comparing cross-validated algorithms on multiple data sets Journal Article Machine Learning, 100 (2), pp. 285–304, 2015. |

Imprecise Dirichlet Process With Application to the Hypothesis Test on the Probability That X ≤ Y Journal Article Journal of Statistical Theory and Practice, 9 (3), pp. 658-684, 2015. |

New prior near-ignorance models on the simplex Journal Article International Journal of Approximate Reasoning, 56, Part B (0), pp. 278 - 306, 2015. |

Statistical Tests for Joint Analysis of Performance Measures Inproceedings Suzuki, Joe ; Ueno, Maomi (Ed.): Advanced Methodologies for Bayesian Networks: Second International Workshop, AMBN 2015, Yokohama, Japan, November 16-18, 2015. Proceedings, pp. 76–92, Springer International Publishing, Cham, 2015, ISBN: 978-3-319-28379-1. |

## 2014 |

A Bayesian Wilcoxon signed-rank test based on the Đirichlet process Inproceedings Proceedings of the 30th International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML 2014), pp. 1–9, 2014. |

Prior near ignorance for inferences in the k-parameter exponential family Journal Article Statistics, 49 , pp. 1104-1140, 2014. |

Probabilistic Inference in Credal Networks: New Complexity Results Journal Article Journal of Artifical Intelligence Research, 50 , pp. 603–637, 2014. |

Belief function and multivalued mapping robustness in statistical estimation Journal Article International Journal of Approximate Reasoning, 55 (1, Part 3), pp. 311 - 329, 2014. |

## 2013 |

New Prior Near-ignorance Models on the Simplex Inproceedings Proc. ISIPTA'13 - 8th Int. Symposium on imprecise Probability: Theories and Applications, pp. 1–9, Compiegne (FR), 2013. |

Imprecise Hierarchical Dirichlet model with applications Inproceedings Information Fusion (FUSION), 2013 Proc. of the 16th International Conference on, pp. 1–8, 2013. |

Set-membership PHD filter Inproceedings Information Fusion (FUSION), 2013 Proc. of the 16th International Conference on, pp. 1722 –1729, 2013. |

On the Complexity of Strong and Epistemic Credal Networks Inproceedings Proceedings of the 29th Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI 2013), pp. 391-400, 2013. |

The Generalized Moment-Based Filter Journal Article Automatic Control, IEEE Transactions on, 58 (10), pp. 2642-2647, 2013, ISSN: 0018-9286. |

Density-ratio robustness in dynamic state estimation Journal Article Mechanical Systems and Signal Processing, 37 (1–2), pp. 54 - 75, 2013. |

## 2012 |

Data-Driven Strategies for selective data transmission in sensor networks Inproceedings Accepted to CDC, 2012. |

Pushing Kalman's Idea to the Extremes Inproceedings Accepted to Information Fusion (FUSION), 2012, 2012. |

Belief Function Robustness in Estimation Incollection Denoeux, Thierry ; Masson, Marie-Hélène (Ed.): Belief Functions: Theory and Applications, 164 , pp. 375-383, Springer Berlin / Heidelberg, 2012. |

A model of prior ignorance for inferences in the one-parameter exponential family Journal Article Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference, 142 (7), pp. 1960 - 1979, 2012, ISSN: 0378-3758. |

Data-driven communication for state estimation with sensor networks Journal Article Automatica, 48 (5), pp. 926 - 935, 2012. |

State estimation with remote sensors and intermittent transmissions Journal Article Systems & Control Letters, 61 (1), pp. 155 - 164, 2012, ISSN: 0167-6911. |